Market Insight:Three comeback kings

AS THE Australian new-vehicle market saw quick uptake of relatively new brands such as BYD and, of course, Tesla, some well-established brands familiar with our parents or even grandparents were taking a beating in the sales charts.

Brands such as Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen were suffering during the COVID-19 crisis for different reasons but with sales numbers for 2023 in the bag, it is clear that all three brands have returned to volume growth and increased market share.

The backdrop to this return to growth for three major brands is very different. While all shared the industry-wide COVID-19 problems, some were impacted more than others so it is worth going back a few years to see what happened.

Australia’s car market shrunk as a whole in 2019, down 7.8 per cent. Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen were, as with many of their competitors, in negative territory for year-on-year market share and volume.

Ford was on a steady sales climb through 2020 as COVID-19 hit to the end of 2021. The brand was in runout with the Ranger and Everest, two key models that had each been on the market for a decade.

In a market that grew 14.5 per cent overall 2020-2021, Ford held 6.5 per cent of the market in 2020 ( 59,601 deliveries) and the worst of COVID-19 lock-down years failed to hurt it. It grew that 6.5 figure to 6.8 per cent (71,380 sold) in 2021, with an overall volume increase of nearly 20 per cent.

But during 2022, Ford had run out of Ranger and Everest, two key models, and was struggling to keep up with orders for new-generation replacements arriving in the second half of the year.

Other product issues included running out Fiesta and Focus ST models, with no replacements. Ford’s market share dropped to 6.2 per cent that year.

With a 2023 showing a bump up 7.2 per cent market share, this can almost wholly be put down to Ranger and Everest deliveries. For the Ranger 4x4 alone, Ford saw more than 15,000 extra copies land in driveways during 2023.

Meanwhile, Nissan’s market share was already in decline three years ago, with the 4.2 per cent achieved in 2020 down to 3.9 per cent in 2021, although actual volume was up 7.7 per cent from 38,323 units to 41,263. Nissan’s fortunes were looking grave in 2022, with market share down to just 2.4 per cen.

Yet with fresh products arriving late in 2022 such as the X-Trail and Pathfinder followed by the Qashqai in early 2023, Nissan started to bounce back last year with a 3.2 per cent market share.

Nissan will no doubt hope that with these models (plus the new Patrol Warrior helping an uptick in sales of its upper large SUV) will keep up momentum, as it has to worry about sales of the ageing Navara ute, 4x4 variants of which dropped 15 per cent in 2023 and 4x2 versions plummeted below 1000 units, a 41.6 per cent slump.

Volkswagen, like Nissan, was not actually selling fewer cars year-on-year three years ago; it sold more volume, just not enough to increase its market share.

From 2020 to 2021, Volkswagen’s share of the market declined from 4.3 per cent to 3.9 per cent but deliveries were up 3.8 per cent, from 39,266 units to 40,770.

In 2022, Volkswagen was down to 2.9 per cent share and volume shrank to just 30,946 units. The problem for Volkswagen was not finding enough buyers, it was the seemingly perennial problem of squeezing out enough cars out of the factory to meet buyer demand.

Supply chain issues that saw Volkswagen sales lag eased during 2023, plus a new Amarok ute and a healthy increase in sales of performance models such as Golf R and Tiguan R, meant Volkswagen sales were up in 2023 to yield a 3.6 per cent market share from 43,821 deliveries.

Even though the market looks to be heading back to some approximation of normal as far as COVID-19 supply chain disruptions are concerned, brands like Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen are not out of the woods.

While Ford and Nissan have strong new models to rely on – and Volkswagen’s vast array of new products arriving in 2024 hold great promise – cost of living pressures and supply chain disruptions caused by international conflicts threaten to continue the recent trend of turbulence for the automotive industry in 2024.

However, as these three brands – and others – have shown, the automotive industry’s navigation of recent tribulations has been a show of resilience and coping mechanisms developed during this time within their respective organisations are likely to place them well for what this year may throw at them.