No large EVs from Mitsubishi anytime soon

MITSUBISHI has, for a long time, been something of a quiet participant in the electrification conversation but as large, expensive EVs with sizable batteries to provide generous single-charge range proliferate, the company has declared that for the time being it is not interested in joining the fray.

According to Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (MMC) data, the proliferation of large EVs is likely the last thing the planet needs from an emissions standpoint.

Takashi Shirakawa, Mitsubishi’s general manager of EV powertrain engineering, detailed the company’s outlook in an interview with GoAuto at MMC headquarters in Tamachi, Tokyo.

While MMC is committed to offering at least one electrified option in every model in its range by the end of its decade – at which point 50 per cent of its line-up will be an electric vehicle – Mr Shirakawa says MMC is not sold on the notion that every car would benefit from going fully electric.

“Sooner or later our vehicles need to be a battery EV type,” Mr Shirakawa said.

“We do need to transform from plug-in hybrid (PHEV) to battery (BEV), but we need to have two breakthroughs,” Shirakawa explained.

“The first one is getting battery supply stable enough, and the second is getting energy density to be higher, like in a solid-state battery. Those are the two breakthroughs required to go into a full battery EV (line-up).”

By Mitsubishi’s reckoning, lithium-ion battery technology is not up to the task of converting the world’s vehicle fleet to EVs.

Battery supply is hampered by the availability of key resources, with Mr Shirakawa stating that the amount of cobalt needed to enable a global EV transition would greatly outstrip the amount of known reserves of the metal.

Lithium and Nickel are also problematic, though the world at least appears to have enough of both to cater for EV production, although nickel may be squeezed by demand from other industries while lithium supplies are also required for consumer goods.   

Then there is the expense of equipping cars with big batteries – a core reason why most new EVs to date are priced well north of the $60K mark, with few truly affordable EV options beneath.

“For us, our problem is always, always cost,” Mr Shirakawa lamented.

Yet the prime factor in Mitsubishi’s aversion to pure EVs is a notion that goes counter to the general narrative around purely electric vehicles. 

According to MMC, large battery-electric vehicles are only the least carbon-intensive option when they are both built and sold in countries with exceptionally green energy infrastructure – and the worst possible thing when the opposite is true.

So while a Volkswagen ID.3 may be a virtuous device when built in Germany and sold to somebody in France, Denmark, Sweden or Scotland, a Tesla Model 3 built in China and driven in Australia carries a much larger CO2 footprint courtesy of the dirtier energy sources used in those countries.

For Australia, where renewables only accounted for eight per cent of total energy consumption in 2020-2021, MMC regards conventional combustion engines as being the least environmentally damaging powertrain on a total lifecycle emissions standpoint while a pure battery-electric vehicle is the worst – particularly if that vehicle was produced in a country with a CO2-intensive power network.

It is worth noting though that not all EVs are created the same – literally. Polestar, though it builds its cars in China (a country with a thoroughly dirty 541g/kWh energy CO2 figure), is actively pursuing a zero-carbon production process by using renewable energy throughout its entire supply and manufacturing chain, with the goal of a zero-carbon EV by 2030.

Not every EV manufacturer is as scrupulous. 

But Australia’s energy mix is steadily changing. Sharp increases in the uptake of renewable solar and wind power over the past decade plus a lack of institutional interest in new fossil fuel energy projects indicate that the national power network is on a path to decarbonisation, which will also change the overall environmental impact of PHEVs and EVs in this country.

By MMC’s data, a reduction in a country’s carbon emissions to around 300g/kWh (Australia recorded an average of 486g/kWh last year, slightly above the global average of 475g/kWh) sees PHEVs dip well below pure combustion and conventional hybrid vehicles in overall CO2 terms, while pure EVs score about the same as conventional (non-plug-in) hybrids in the same metric.

But it is worth mentioning that this is for larger vehicles. When it comes to lightweight city cars, Mitsubishi’s research indicates that going fully electric is the best solution for cutting CO2 emissions within that segment.

Much of this has to do with lighter cars being able to utilise smaller batteries, generating less CO2 during production and requiring less energy during driving.

And thus, the company’s strategy is this: large cars will be PHEVs, small cars will be EVs.

“For example, an Outlander is defined as a larger vehicle in our case,” Mr Shirakawa explained. 

“An Eclipse Cross is a little bit smaller than an Outlander, but from an engineering point of view it’s in the same category. But, for example, a Renault Captur is not, as a B-segment vehicle.”

“B-segment vehicles also have plug-in hybrids in the global market, but those smaller vehicles can become battery EVs faster than a C-segment vehicle because a smaller battery is typically good enough (for that size) and, of course, it’s more difficult to equip both an engine and an electric motor in the same package because the vehicle’s size is small.”

Accordingly, MMC launched the pint-sized ek X EV into the Japanese market in the middle of this year, a fully-electric kei-class microcar that provides around 180km of range from its 20kWh battery – which is the same capacity as that of its much larger sibling, the Outlander PHEV.

Further technological developments in battery technology – particularly the maturation of solid-state battery chemistry – could eventually see all-electric large cars enter MMC’s product pipeline.

For now, based on current technology and taking into account the still-significant percentage of fossil fuels in the world’s power generation mix, Mitsubishi Motors is putting its chips on PHEV powertrains for the bulk of its line-up.

“It could depend on how to produce an SSB (solid state battery),” Mr Shirakawa said.

“Current technologies require more electricity because the dry plate manufacturing requires more precise temperature and humidity control. So then, the ‘production’ component of CO2 (for an SSB-equipped car) looks like it will be increased. However, a benefit of an SSB is that it’s more durable while performance is kept the same (compared to a conventional lithium-ion battery), so we can increase the age of the battery, its service life.” 

“However, right now we don’t know which is the more important factor: production-related CO2 emissions, or a longer service life from better durability.”